SpaceX Nasdaq-100 inclusion triggers multibillion-dollar passive influx

The Elon Musk-led company secured its spot on the tech-heavy index with record speed, benefiting from revised Nasdaq rules for newly listed firms. This inclusion forces index-tracking funds, such as the Invesco QQQ, to adjust their portfolios, creating a structural source of demand for the stock. Despite this, shares slipped 5.4% on Tuesday, caught in a wider retreat of high-momentum tech equities as investors weigh the sustainability of the current AI boom.

Major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan, have launched coverage with top ratings, moving away from pure sentiment toward valuation based on conventional metrics. Analysts point to Starship, the company's reusable next-generation rocket, as the primary catalyst for long-term growth. Projections vary significantly, with J.P. Morgan forecasting up to 5,000 annual launches by 2031, while Raymond James has established a Street-high price target of $800.

Not all analysts share the optimism. CFRA maintains a sell rating with a target of $115, citing concerns over lofty expectations. Meanwhile, the company’s potential as a hyperscale AI infrastructure provider remains a central pillar of the bull case, with Deutsche Bank analysts highlighting its unique ability to deliver low-cost compute. With a market cap of $2 trillion, SpaceX now commands a 1.34% weight on the Nasdaq-100, though it remains excluded from the S&P 500 as S&P Global maintains stricter requirements for index entry.