Banco BPM Raises Outlook After Abandoning Monte dei Paschi Merger

Net income for the three months ending in June reached €581 million, comfortably beating the €531 million consensus forecast. While this result trails the €704 million profit recorded during the same period last year—a figure bolstered by a €202 million one-off gain from an Anima Holding stake revaluation—the underlying performance underscores the bank’s stability as a standalone entity.

With the merger path closed, the bank is pivoting toward a strategy of increased capital returns. Management confirmed that the 2026 dividend, previously targeted at €1 per share, is now expected to exceed that mark against a projected net profit of at least €1.95 billion. Furthermore, the total shareholder remuneration commitment for the 2024-2027 period has been raised to €7 billion, up from the prior €6 billion target, to be distributed via cash dividends and share buybacks.

The decision to abandon the Monte dei Paschi talks follows pressure from Crédit Agricole, Banco BPM’s largest shareholder. The French banking group publicly rejected the acquisition, signaling a preference for BPM to integrate with its own Italian operations instead. The failed tie-up leaves Banco BPM navigating a consolidating market on its own terms, focusing on internal growth rather than external expansion.