Gartner sees AI adding 1.7 million jobs globally by 2030

Gartner analyst John Lovelock told Business Insider that many companies are currently holding back on hiring while they assess AI’s effects. He described adoption as a progression: early use can delay hiring, broader use can bring job cuts, and more mature applications can lead to net job additions.

Gartner estimates that job losses would affect less than 2% of workers. But it projects that more than 20% of the workforce—435.5 million people—will need to adjust what they do or how they do it. “Of the 10 tasks you may be doing today, you may only be doing six of them, and you'll be doing them differently tomorrow,” Lovelock said.

ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud said AI is adding volatility to US technology-related industries and changing the skills employers seek. She expects more turnover in professional and business services, financial activities and information as those requirements shift. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported more than 100,000 AI-related job-cut announcements in the US through October this year, making AI the second-most-cited reason after market and economic conditions.

The effects may vary by industry. Lovelock said governments focused on efficiency and lower operating costs could be more likely to cut jobs, while productivity gains in service industries could make hiring additional workers more attractive. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said unemployment would likely remain low next year, though more aggressive AI adoption could put upward pressure on it over the following couple of years. He described that pressure as temporary, not a forecast of a job apocalypse.

Public concern remains high in some countries. Pew Research Center found that 76% of people surveyed in Australia and South Korea expect AI to reduce jobs in their country over the next 20 years, the highest shares among 37 countries. Nigeria and the Philippines had the lowest, at 26%.